After a busy 2023, the travel bug is set to bite harder in 2024, paving the way for a return to pre-pandemic tourism levels.
As per the debut United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) World Tourism Barometer of the year, international tourism bid farewell to 2023 at a commendable 88% of pre-pandemic levels, welcoming around 1.3 billion international globetrotters. The World Tourism Barometer, established by the UNWTO and monitors tourism trends over the short term. For 2024, A surge in pent-up demand, enhanced air connectivity, and a robust rebound of Asian markets and destinations are anticipated.
What happened in 2023
The latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer looks at the industry’s performance in 2023, dissecting the recovery by global regions, sub-regions, and destinations. Key highlights include:
- The Middle East emerged as the only region surpassing pre-pandemic levels, with arrivals soaring 22% above 2019.
- Europe (the world’s most visited region) reached an impressive 94% of 2019 levels, fuelled by intra-regional demand and travel from the United States.
- Africa mirrored a remarkable recovery at 96% of pre-pandemic visitors, while the Americas achieved 90%.
- Asia and the Pacific attained 65% of pre-pandemic levels, showcasing a mixed performance. South Asia outpaced expectations by reaching 87% of 2019 levels, while North-East Asia lingered at around 55%.
Interestingly, several destinations, both large and emerging, reported double-digit growth in international arrivals in 2023 compared to 2019. Noteworthy mentions include:
- Southern Mediterranean Europe
- The Caribbean
- Central America, and
- North Africa
The Economic Impact
The economic implications of the recovery are equally significant:
- International tourism receipts reached USD 1.4 trillion in 2023, approximately 93% of the USD 1.5 trillion earned in 2019.
- Total export revenues from tourism, including passenger transport, are estimated at USD 1.6 trillion in 2023, nearly 95% of the USD 1.7 trillion recorded in 2019.
- Preliminary estimates of the economic contribution of tourism, measured in tourism direct gross domestic product (TDGDP), point to USD 3.3 trillion in 2023, constituting 3% of global GDP. This signals a recovery of pre-pandemic TDGDP, propelled by robust domestic and international tourism.
The sustained recovery is evident in industry indicators. According to the UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker, both international air capacity and passenger demand rebounded to around 90% of pre-pandemic levels by October 2023. Global occupancy rates in accommodation establishments reached 65% in November, slightly surpassing the 62% recorded in November 2022.
Looking to 2024
The outlook for international travel in 2024 is optimistic, with initial estimates projecting a 2% growth above 2019 levels. However, this forecast by UNWTO is contingent on the pace of recovery in Asia and the evolution of existing economic and geopolitical risks. The latest UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index survey revealed that 67% of tourism professionals expressed’ better’ or ‘much better’ prospects for 2024 compared to 2023.
Key considerations for 2024
The UNWTO also gave some insights on what to expect for travel in 2024.
- Asia still has ample room for recovery. The reopening of several source markets and destinations will catalyze recovery in the region and globally.
- Chinese outbound and inbound tourism is predicted to accelerate in 2024, thanks to visa facilitation and improved air capacity. China is offering visa-free travel for citizens of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Malaysia until 30 November 2024.
- Visa and travel facilitation measures will likely boost travel to and around the Middle East and Africa. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are implementing a unified tourist visa, akin to the Schengen visa. Measures to ease intra-African travel in Kenya and Rwanda are also underway.
- Europe will be a driving force in 2024. Romania and Bulgaria will join the Schengen area of free movement In March. Plus Paris will host the Summer Olympics in July and August.
- Robust travel from the United States, supported by a strong US dollar, will continue to benefit destinations in the Americas and beyond. Strong source markets in Europe, the Americas, and the Middle East will continue to fuel tourism flows and spending globally.
- Economic and geopolitical challenges, including inflation, high interest rates, volatile oil prices, and trade disruptions, persist and pose significant hurdles to the sustained recovery of international tourism and confidence levels. Tourists in 2024 are expected to seek value for money and opt for closer-to-home travel. Sustainable practices and adaptability will play an increasing role in consumer choice.
- Staff shortages remain a critical issue as tourism businesses grapple with a labour shortfall to meet high demand.
- The evolution of the Hamas-Israel conflict and other geopolitical tensions, including the Russian aggression against Ukraine, may introduce uncertainties and impact traveller confidence.
Conclusion
It looks like 2024 promises excitement and growth, with global tourism rebounding and explorers setting their sights on new horizons. Whether it’s the allure of historic Europe, the vibrant cultures of Asia, or the scenic wonders of Africa, the world is ready to be rediscovered. As we embark on this journey, let’s not only revel in the joys of exploration but also embrace sustainable and inclusive practices, ensuring that our global adventures leave a positive impact on communities and the planet.
2024 will be big year for travel, why not browse my destinations. Will you be travelling this year?
Happy Exploring!